Output data collected during the program. Orphan Foundation Of America Orph publicly reports data on the dollar value of all scholarships it grants and the number of scholarship recipients, which we use to calculate the additional income that the nonprofit's scholarship program generates.

We estimate the increase in income caused by a nonprofit's scholarship program in two steps. First, we compare the estimated postsecondary graduation rate of its scholars to that of comparable students who did not receive a scholarship (the “counterfactual”). Our estimates are drawn from rigorous social science studies of similar scholarship programs. The result is the number of scholars whose graduation was caused by the nonprofit. Second, we compare the earnings of graduates to non-graduates based on publicly available census data, matching on student demographic characteristics. We apply the earnings boost owing to a degree to those scholars whose graduation was caused by the nonprofit. Both steps are necessary to properly net out counterfactual successes from observed successes. Otherwise, we would be attributing changes (increase in graduation rate and increase in earnings) to the nonprofit when they would have happened anyway. Few nonprofits estimate the counterfactual themselves, so we construct our own counterfactual estimate based on research and publicly available data.

Analysis conducted by ImpactMatters and published on November 22, 2019.